A calculator, not a forecast. Pick a race and set the
assumptions — how many people turn out, how independents break, how many
voters cross party lines — and it shows the vote math and what it would
take to win. Every input is yours; nothing is hidden. The defaults are
calibrated so the starting point reproduces the last election's result on
the registered electorate as of Sep 2026. Move a slider to explore a different 2026.
60 of the 80
contested 2026 races can be simulated — a district needs a contested
Democrat-vs-Republican result last time to calibrate against, so seats that
ran unopposed aren't here.
Win conditions. Every combination of independent split
(left→right) and Republican crossover (bottom→top), at the turnout you
set. Blue = the Democrat wins, red = the Republican. The dot is your
current scenario; the star is the last-election baseline.
0% independents → D100%
How it works. Each registered bloc — Democrats,
Republicans, No-Party — turns out at the rate you set and splits between the
two candidates. The Democrat's votes = (D registered × D turnout × 95% loyalty)
+ (R registered × R turnout × crossover) + (No-Party × their turnout × independent split);
the Republican gets the rest. Independent turnout is the average of the two
party turnouts. At the default settings this reproduces the last election's
two-party split; the numbers move only because you moved them.
What it isn't. This is deliberate, transparent arithmetic —
not a prediction and not a probability. It ignores candidate quality,
spending, national mood, and everything a real campaign turns on. It maps
what would have to be true, so you can judge how plausible that is. Pools:
Iowa SOS active voter registration, Sep 2026. Baseline: the district's most recent SOS
canvass (2022 for staggered Senate seats, 2024 for the House).